Arnold Allen wins a round by landing the cleaner southpaw punch and making the wrestler miss the entry. Aaron Pico wins one by chaining the shot until the punch stops being the round.

Five rounds. 145. UFC gloves. Nothing below is booked. Allen was matched with Pico for UFC 333. Allen withdrew on a rehab timeline. Pico stayed on the card against Losene Keita. This is the bout that was written and then scratched.

Why this fight matters

Allen is 21-4, 32, 5'8", 70-inch reach, southpaw. UFC ranked. He decisioned Giga Chikadze, lost a unanimous decision to Jean Silva, and decisioned Melquizael Costa over five rounds on May 16. The other recent losses are decisions to Movsar Evloev and Max Holloway. He has not been finished in the recent tape. A win here is a ranked claim against a wrestler who just beat a former champion.

Pico is 14-5, 30, 5'8", 70-inch reach, orthodox. UFC 1-1. He lost to Lerone Murphy by spinning back elbow at 3:21 of round one, then decisioned Patricio Pitbull over three rounds on April 11 with six takedowns and a 100-49 striking edge. The Bellator résumé is power and wrestling. The UFC résumé is one finish against and one control win. A win is the ranked step the cancelled booking was written to be.

What the tape numbers actually mean

Allen lands 3.52 significant strikes per minute at 44 percent and eats 3.15. Defense 60 percent. Takedowns 1.24 per 15 at 27 percent. Takedown defense 73 percent. Submission average 0.28. The volume is ordinary and the accuracy is not special. The defense of the shot is the number. Costa was a five-round decision. Silva was a decision he lost, with four takedowns and no ground strikes. The finish has not been the method.

Pico lands 6.16 at 53 percent and eats 3.11. Defense 45 percent. Takedowns 6.54 per 15 at 50 percent. Takedown defense is a small-sample zero. Submission average 0.0. Pitbull was six takedowns and a 100-49 edge. Murphy was a spinning elbow in round one. The shot is the offense. The standing defense is the hole.

Height is even. Reach is even. Age is two years. Stance is southpaw against orthodox. The lead foot is the open side.

Striking

Allen’s A-game is the southpaw jab and the left hand. He does not load the spin. He boxes. Chikadze and Costa were minutes banked on the cleaner shot. Silva was the night the cleaner shot was not enough.

Pico’s striking is the power that made the Bellator name and the right hand that sat Pitbull down enough to control. The 45 percent defense is why Murphy found the elbow. A longer jab into a level change is his striking. A firefight against a southpaw who can exit is not.

Grappling

Pico’s tree is the chain. Six on Pitbull. The 6.54 average is the highest number on the page. Allen’s 73 percent takedown defense is the problem for a man whose whole offense is the shot. A running double dies. A chain that starts off the fence does not. Allen’s own offense is the occasional shot and the scramble. He does not hunt the choke as a first path.

Clinch

Pico’s office if he gets the underhook. Collar tie, trip, the ride. Allen wants the inside position and the left hand on the break. A clinch that becomes a ride is a Pico round. A clinch that breaks clean is another minute of Allen’s boxing.

Pace

Twenty-five minutes. Allen has already done it against Costa. Pico’s recent wins have been fifteen minutes or less. The first three rounds are where Pico’s shot volume lives. Rounds four and five are where Allen has already answered a main event. The engine is the unanswered part of a five-round fantasy.

Allen’s keys

  • Stuff the first shot. A second shot against the fence is Pico’s round.
  • Jab the orthodox lead hand. Do not walk onto the right.
  • Exit on the left. Silva was the night the exit was late.
  • Steal round one on volume so a late ride cannot take the decision.
  • Stay off the fence. A stalled entry is a Pico combination.

Pico’s keys

  • Body lock off the fence. Do not shoot naked into the southpaw left.
  • Chain the shot. One attempt is a stuff. Three is a round.
  • Right hand when he loads. The 45 percent defense is the other way.
  • Ride. Pitbull was a decision because the control never became a finish, and it was still a win.
  • Finish in the first three rounds. The Murphy night is the only recent evidence he has of a finish against.

X-factors

The withdrawal. The Costa decision is the tape either way.

Murphy. Pico’s chin against a spinning elbow is not a theory. It is the last time a power hand found him clean. Allen is not that elbow.

Pitbull. Six takedowns and a 100-49 edge. Pico can win a fight on control. He has not done it against a southpaw who stuffs the first shot.

Twenty-five minutes. Allen has been five rounds and won. Pico has not been asked to do it since the nights that ended early.

Prediction

Allen’s southpaw volume and the takedown defense are the fight. Pico’s path is the chain that controlled Pitbull, if the first shot lands.

Arnold Allen 55

  • Decision 32
  • TKO 16
  • Submission 7

Aaron Pico 45

  • TKO 22, rounds 1–2
  • Decision 18
  • Submission 5

The pick is the decision. It is the largest share of the fight, and it is the way Allen has won the recent nights. Pico’s knockout is the next share, and it lives where the Bellator power and the Pitbull control could become a finish if the chain starts early. A Pico decision is the Pitbull path. An Allen finish is the night the left hand accumulates and the ride never starts.

What an Allen win would mean: the Costa decision still travels, and a high-volume wrestler does not take the hips against a ranked southpaw. What a Pico win would mean: the Pitbull control was a ranked claim, and the cancelled booking was the fight he was ready for.