A three-round women’s flyweight in Edmonton between the New Jersey grappler who choked Tracy Cortez and the Canadian who decisioned Karine Silva in her last outing.
Written by The Cage Scholar · Edited by @DudeGameison ·
Video prediction
Hit
Article · Miss
Jasmine Jasudavicius
Unanimous decision · 29-28, 29-28, 29-28
The night
Updated
Jasudavicius by unanimous decision, 29-28, 29-28, 29-28. Pick was Erin Blanchfield by decision. Miss.
Jasudavicius took the first two rounds. Blanchfield pressed early in round one. Jasudavicius changed levels, took her down, got the back, and held a body triangle while she worked for a choke. In round two Blanchfield tried a shot of her own, landed some clean strikes, and then got taken down again. Jasudavicius took the back a second time and chased a rear-naked choke that did not finish. Blanchfield won the third on the feet. Jasudavicius still went for a late takedown.
The tape got the shape right. The fence ride was the Canadian path, and it was the first two rounds. Jasudavicius’s decision share was already on the card. The home building and the length were the edges the preview named.
The tape missed the stuff. Blanchfield’s 78 percent takedown defense was the reason the lean went her way. It did not hold for the first ten minutes. She got the back in the preview. She gave it up in the fight. The choke that ended Cortez never got a clean look. The rematch tape was not the night. The home ride was.
The preview
Erin Blanchfield wins a round by getting to the back and hunting the choke. Jasmine Jasudavicius wins one by using three extra inches to ride the fence and keep the hips.
Three rounds. 125. UFC gloves. Booked for UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott on October 17 at Rogers Place. The pairing was first dated for August 15. Blanchfield withdrew, and the bout moved to Edmonton.
Why this fight matters
Blanchfield is 14-2, 27, 5'4", 66-inch reach, orthodox. UFC 8-1. She submitted Molly McCann with a kimura, choked Jessica Andrade from the back, decisioned Taila Santos, lost a five-round unanimous decision to Manon Fiorot, decisioned Rose Namajunas over five rounds in Edmonton, and rear-naked choked Tracy Cortez at 4:44 of round two last November. Ranked ahead of Jasudavicius. A win puts her back in the title conversation she left after Fiorot.
Jasudavicius is 15-4, 37, 5'7", 68-inch reach, orthodox, from St. Catharines. UFC 9-3. She D’Arce-choked Ariane da Silva, rear-naked choked Andrade in round one, lost to Fiorot by punches at 1:14 of round one, and decisioned Karine Silva on April 18 with three takedowns. This is a Canadian card. A win at home is a ranked step, not a stay-busy fight.
Both women have finished Andrade. Fiorot has beaten both. The difference is the method. Fiorot needed 25 minutes to decision Blanchfield. She needed 74 seconds to stop Jasudavicius.
What the tape numbers actually mean
Blanchfield lands 5.24 significant strikes per minute at 44 percent and eats 4.25. Defense 58 percent. Takedowns 1.96 per 15 at 34 percent. Takedown defense 78 percent. Submission average 0.9. The volume is real and the accuracy is ordinary. The finish is the back. Cortez was two takedowns and a choke. Andrade was one takedown and a choke. Maverick was seven takedowns and a decision.
Jasudavicius lands 3.47 at 44 percent and eats 3.46. Defense 51 percent. Takedowns 2.63 per 15 at 46 percent. Takedown defense 75 percent. Submission average 0.5. She does not win a striking count. She wins positions. Silva was 18-15 on the feet and 3-0 on the mat. Andrade was one takedown and a choke at 2:40. The 51 percent striking defense is the hole if the fight stays standing.
Height is Jasudavicius by three inches. Reach is Jasudavicius by two. Age is ten years. Stance is orthodox both ways.
Striking
Neither woman is a puncher first. Blanchfield’s striking is the jab, the low kick, and the volume that kept Namajunas from running away with the rounds in this building. It was not enough against Fiorot, who outlanded her 172-130 over 25 minutes.
Jasudavicius strikes to set the shot. The output is low. Fiorot ended her in 74 seconds with punches, which is the standing minute she does not want. A longer jab into a level change is her striking. A firefight is not.
Grappling
This is the fight. Blanchfield’s tree is the kimura that finished McCann, the guillotine that finished JJ Aldrich, and the rear-naked choke that finished Andrade and Cortez. She will chain. She will hunt the neck once the back is there. Her 78 percent takedown defense is the problem for a woman whose whole offense is the shot.
Jasudavicius’s tree is the fence ride, the mat return, and the choke once the hips settle. Three takedowns on Silva. Three on Mayra Bueno Silva. Three on Ariane, then a D’Arce. One on Andrade, then the back. She has the higher takedown rate and the longer frame to finish a body lock. She is shooting on a woman who has stuffed most of what has come at her since the Fiorot loss.
Clinch
Jasudavicius’s office if she gets the underhook. Collar tie, trip, the ride along the fence. Blanchfield wants the inside position and the guillotine on the break. A clinch that becomes a ride is a Canadian round. A clinch that becomes a front headlock is Blanchfield’s finish.
Pace
Fifteen minutes, not twenty-five. Blanchfield’s last two fights that reached the championship rounds were the Namajunas win and the Fiorot loss. Her finishes have lived in round two. Jasudavicius can end a night in round one, as she did to Andrade, and she can bank three rounds of control, as she did to Silva. The first fence ride decides which of those nights this is.
Blanchfield’s keys
Stuff the first shot. A second shot against the fence is Jasudavicius’s round.
Guillotine on the level change. Aldrich already published that finish.
Take the back once the hips are down. Cortez and Andrade both ended there.
Jab and low kick when the shot is not there. Do not give her the collar for free.
Steal round one. A late choke still needs a round that is not already lost on control.
Jasudavicius’s keys
Body lock off the fence. Do not shoot naked into the guillotine.
Use the height. A collar tie from 5'7" is a different problem than a shot from range.
Ride. Silva was a decision because the control never became a finish, and it was still a win.
D’Arce if the neck comes up on a scramble. Ariane ended that way.
Stay off the center. Fiorot’s punches found her in open space in 74 seconds.
X-factors
The withdrawal. The injury is unpublished. Edmonton is the makeup, in the building where she decisioned Namajunas.
Fiorot. The shared win is not the same tape.
Andrade. Both choked her from the back. Blanchfield needed round two. Jasudavicius needed 2:40 of round one. The back is live for both.
Fifteen minutes at 37. Jasudavicius has gone the distance in her recent decisions. She has not had to chain for fifteen minutes against a younger woman whose finish is the same position she wants.
Prediction
Blanchfield’s back take and her takedown defense are the fight. Jasudavicius’s path is the fence ride, and the length that makes it easier to get.
Erin Blanchfield 61
Decision 28
Submission 26, round 2
TKO 7
Jasmine Jasudavicius 39
Decision 20
Submission 14, rounds 1–2
TKO 5
The pick is the decision. It is the largest share of the fight, and it is the way a control bout goes when neither choke lands clean. The rear-naked choke is the next share, and it lives where Cortez ended. Jasudavicius’s decision is the home path: three takedowns, the Silva path, and a Canadian scorecard. Her submission is the Andrade minute.
What a Blanchfield win would mean: the Cortez choke still travels, and a top-five return does not need a finish to be a title argument. What a Jasudavicius win would mean: the length and the ride were enough in her building, and the younger grappler did not get the back.