A five-round welterweight main event in Edmonton between the St. Louis southpaw coming off losses to Sean Brady and Kamaru Usman and the Ontario finisher who just knocked out Gilbert Burns.
Written by The Cage Scholar · Edited by @DudeGameison ·
Video prediction
Miss
Article · Hit
Mike Malott
KO (knee) · R2 2:32
The night
Updated
Malott by KO (knee), Round 2, 2:32. Pick was Mike Malott by decision, 58/42. Hit on the winner. Miss on the method.
Both men were patient in the first round. In the second Buckley pressed, forced a clinch on the fence, and ate knees to the body. He broke out. Malott landed a right hand as he came in. Buckley stepped in for an overhand. Malott planted him with a knee that looked like a kick until it landed on the jaw. Buckley’s momentum carried him forward. Malott finished him with a punch. He was out. The mouthpiece flew.
The tape got the winner and the building. Malott’s power was already on the card from the Burns night. The TKO share lived in rounds 2–3. The knee landed inside that window. Buckley’s 36 percent accuracy and the two-fight skid were the reasons the lean went the Canadian’s way.
The tape missed the method. The largest slice was the decision, the night where the left hand keeps missing and the right hand banks the minutes. The left hand never became the round. The knee did. The preview had Buckley’s knockout as the next share. Malott took that share instead. The Burns path was the night. The decision was not.
The preview
Joaquin Buckley wins a round by landing the left hand from a 76-inch southpaw frame. Mike Malott wins one by walking through the miss and making the longer man pay for the entry.
Five rounds. 170. UFC gloves. Main event of UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott on October 17 at Rogers Place. Malott is the Canadian. Buckley is the visitor.
Why this fight matters
Buckley is 21-8, 32, 5'10", 76-inch reach, southpaw. He knocked out Stephen Thompson, stopped Vicente Luque, and finished Colby Covington in round three, then lost a five-round decision to Kamaru Usman and a three-round decision to Sean Brady. Against Brady he landed five significant strikes. Against Usman he landed 44 and gave up four takedowns. The power is still the reason he is in a main event. The last two nights are the reason it is in Edmonton and not a title eliminator.
Malott is 14-2-1, 34, 6'1", 73-inch reach, orthodox, from Ontario. He guillotined Adam Fugitt, got stopped by Neil Magny in round three, decisioned Trevin Giles, knocked out Charles Radtke at 0:26 of round two, decisioned Kevin Holland, and stopped Gilbert Burns with punches at 2:08 of round three on April 18. This is his card. A win in the main event is a ranked claim in his own building.
What the tape numbers actually mean
Buckley lands 3.62 significant strikes per minute at 36 percent and eats 3.10. Defense 58 percent. Takedowns 1.43 per 15 at 45 percent. Takedown defense 70 percent. Submission average 0.1. The accuracy is the hole. He wins when one of the misses is not a miss. Thompson was a left hand in round three. Luque was punches. Covington was a late stoppage. Brady was a night the left hand never arrived.
Malott lands 4.02 at 48 percent and eats 3.09. Defense 56 percent. Takedowns 1.63 per 15 at 50 percent. Takedown defense 57 percent. Submission average 0.7. The Burns night was two knockdowns and a 56-40 striking edge. The Holland night was a decision he did not dominate on the feet, 49-52. The Magny night was a round-three stoppage after he had landed four takedowns of his own. He can box. He can be finished once the pace turns.
Height is Malott by three inches. Reach is Buckley by three. Age is two years. Stance is southpaw against orthodox. The lead foot is the open side.
Striking
Buckley’s A-game is the long left, the spinning back fist and elbow that made his name, and the calf kick from the open stance. He does not need volume. He needs one clean entry. The 36 percent accuracy is why Brady could win a round by making him load and miss.
Malott’s striking is the jab, the right hand, and the combination that sat Burns down. He will walk forward. He does not give ground the way a counterfighter does. Against a longer southpaw that is a choice: eat the calf kick to land the right, or circle off and give Buckley the angle he wants.
Grappling
Neither man is a chain wrestler. Thompson never shot. Usman and Brady did, four times each, and that is where the defense fell apart. They are not the man across from him here. Malott’s 57 percent defense is the number if Buckley shoots off a miss. Malott’s own offense is the guillotine that finished Fugitt and the ride he used on Magny before the stoppage. A scramble is live. A twenty-five-minute wrestling match is not the shape of either record.
Clinch
Buckley wants the elbow and the break. Malott wants the collar and a dirty right hand. A clinch that becomes a trip is Malott’s round. A clinch that breaks into space is another minute for the left hand.
Pace
Five rounds. Buckley has been there once in the last two years, against Usman, and he lost it. Malott’s recent wins have been fifteen minutes or less. Burns ended in round three. Radtke ended in round two. The first three rounds are where both men have finished people. Rounds four and five are the question neither recent win has answered.
Buckley’s keys
Left hand down the open side. Do not load the spin until the jab has him guessing.
Calf kick the lead leg early. Make the right hand cost him balance.
Do not chase a shot. Brady’s night started when the striking stopped.
Finish in the first three rounds. The Usman fight is the only recent evidence he has of round four.
Stay off the fence. A stalled entry is a Malott combination.
Malott’s keys
Jab the southpaw lead hand. Do not walk onto the left.
Right hand when he spins or dips. Thompson ate the left because he waited.
Guillotine if the level change is high. Fugitt published that finish.
Steal the center. Buckley’s length needs space.
Make him miss for a round. Brady landed the lesson without being a puncher.
X-factors
Brady. Five significant strikes in fifteen minutes, four takedowns against. Malott does not wrestle like Brady. The miss rate is still the tape he has to answer.
Burns. Malott’s power is not a rumor. It is the last night he fought.
Magny. Buckley is the man who can find that minute with one left hand.
Twenty-five minutes. Malott has not been asked to do it since the nights that ended early. The engine is the unanswered part of a main event.
Prediction
Malott wins the round where the long left keeps missing, and the right hand that lands because it did. Buckley’s length is the finish only if that miss never comes.
Mike Malott 58
Decision 30
TKO 20, rounds 2–3
Submission 8
Joaquin Buckley 42
TKO 26, rounds 1–3
Decision 14
Submission 2
The pick is the decision. It is the largest share of the fight, and it is the way a longer puncher loses when the accuracy stays at 36 percent. Buckley’s knockout is the next share, and it lives where Thompson and Luque ended. Malott’s stoppage is the Burns path. A Buckley decision is the Ruziboev night: he lands enough, and the finish never comes.
What a Malott win would mean: the Burns knockout was a main-event claim, and a two-fight skid does not travel into a Canadian building. What a Buckley win would mean: the left hand still ends nights, and the Brady tape was the wrestler, not the puncher.