Tatiana Suarez wins a round by getting the hips and holding the choke. Virna Jandiroba wins one by getting the same hips and keeping the night on the scorecards.

Three rounds. 115. UFC gloves. The fight is booked for UFC Vegas 124 on November 7. Suarez last fought on April 11. Jandiroba last fought on April 4. Two earlier dates fell through. This is the contender fight written as a card.

Why this fight matters

Suarez is 13-1, 35, 5'5", 66-inch reach, southpaw. UFC ranked. She submitted Jessica Andrade with a guillotine at 1:31 of round two, decisioned Amanda Lemos over three rounds, lost a five-round decision to Zhang Weili, and submitted Loopy Godinez with a rear-naked choke at 2:29 of round two. Seven of the thirteen wins are submissions. A win is the ranked claim that becomes a title shot. A loss is the second mark on a record that has only one.

Jandiroba is 23-4, 38, 5'3", 64-inch reach, orthodox. UFC ranked. She submitted Amanda Lemos with an armbar at 4:48 of round two, lost a five-round decision to Mackenzie Dern for the vacant title, and decisioned Tabatha Ricci over three rounds. Fourteen of the twenty-three wins are submissions. A win is the ranked claim that becomes a title shot. A loss is the fifth mark on a record that has already been to a title fight and lost.

What the tape numbers actually mean

Suarez lands 2.86 significant strikes per minute at 60 percent and eats 1.63. Defense 44 percent. Takedowns 4.52 per 15 at 45 percent. Takedown defense 57 percent. Submission average 0.7. The takedown is the entry. The choke is the finish. Godinez was the recent one. Weili was five rounds and a title.

Jandiroba lands 2.33 at 41 percent and eats 2.90. Defense 55 percent. Takedowns 2.85 per 15 at 37 percent. Takedown defense 74 percent. Submission average 1.5. Lemos was the recent finish. Ricci was a decision. Dern was five rounds and a title. The submission average is higher. The recent nights have been decisions.

Height is Suarez by two inches. Reach is Suarez by two. Age is Suarez by three. Stance is southpaw against orthodox.

Striking

Neither woman wins on the feet. Suarez’s striking is the setup for the entry. The 60 percent accuracy is the number. Jandiroba’s striking is the setup for the same entry. The 41 percent accuracy is the number. Against a woman who has already taken Godinez down three times and finished her, a measured boxing night is not the tape.

Grappling

Suarez’s A-game is the hips and the back. Godinez and Andrade both ended on the choke once the hips settled. The 4.52 takedown average is the number. Jandiroba’s A-game is the same hips and the armbar. Lemos ended on the armbar. The 1.5 submission average is the number. A naked shot dies. A chain that reaches the hips does not.

Clinch

Short and clean for both. Suarez wants the collar and the entry. Jandiroba wants the collar and the entry. A clinch that becomes a ride is either woman’s office. A clinch that breaks is another minute of whoever lands the next shot.

Pace

Fifteen minutes. Suarez has been five rounds once, against Weili, and lost. Jandiroba has been five rounds once, against Dern, and lost. The first two rounds are where both women’s finishing trees live. Round three is where the recent decisions have been. The engine is the part neither woman’s recent nights have been asked to answer against a submission hunter of this level.

Suarez’s keys

  • Body lock before the entry. Do not shoot naked into the jab.
  • Collar tie on the exit. Godinez was the night the back was open.
  • Steal round one so a late armbar cannot take the record.
  • Ride the clinch. The fence is the office.
  • Chain the entry. The 74 percent takedown defense is the wall.

Jandiroba’s keys

  • Collar tie when Suarez loads. Do not stand in the southpaw lead.
  • Armbar when the hips settle. The 57 percent takedown defense is the hole.
  • Do not chase. Ricci was a decision because the volume never became a finish.
  • Finish in the first two rounds. Lemos was the window. Round three is the path that has already worked for the other woman.
  • Ride the fence. A broken clinch is Suarez’s next choke.

X-factors

Godinez. A rear-naked choke at 2:29 of round two. Suarez can end a night early against a ranked woman. She has not done it against a woman who has submitted Amanda Lemos and gone five rounds for a title.

Lemos. An armbar at 4:48 of round two. Jandiroba can end a night with the armbar once the hips settle. She has not done it against a woman who has taken Godinez down three times and finished her.

Weili. Five rounds and a decision. Suarez can lose a fight when the volume does not hold. She has not met a submission hunter who has already been to a title fight and lost.

Fifteen minutes. Both women have been five rounds and lost. Neither has been fifteen minutes against the other. The third round is the open question. The hips are the other one.

Prediction

Suarez’s hips and the Godinez choke are the fight. Jandiroba’s path is the armbar, if the hips settle the other way.

Tatiana Suarez 62

  • Submission 28, rounds 1–2
  • Decision 24
  • TKO 10

Virna Jandiroba 38

  • Decision 18
  • Submission 14
  • TKO 6

The pick is the submission. It is the largest share of the fight, and it is the way Suarez has finished the recent ranked nights. Jandiroba’s decision is her largest share, and it lives where the ride can hold the way it did against Ricci. A Suarez decision is the Lemos path. A Jandiroba finish is her own Lemos night.

What a Suarez win would mean: the Godinez choke still holds, and a career submission hunter does not take the minutes against this entry. What a Jandiroba win would mean: the Lemos armbar still holds, and a higher takedown rate does not travel against this ride.