A three-round light heavyweight at UFC 333 between the compact puncher who just lost his first fight to Paulo Costa and the long southpaw who split a decision with Johnny Walker on the same card.
Written by The Cage Scholar · Edited by @DudeGameison ·
Video prediction
Miss
Article · Miss
Dominick Reyes
KO (head kick and punches) · R1 2:40
The night
Updated
Reyes by KO (head kick and punches), Round 1, 2:40. Pick was Azamat Murzakanov by TKO. Miss.
They circled and measured. Reyes landed leg kicks. Murzakanov chased. Reyes caught him with a head kick that put him on shaky legs. Reyes followed with a left hand. Murzakanov went down. Ground-and-pound. The referee stopped it at 2:40.
The tape got the window. A first-round finish was the largest share on the card, and the fight ended inside it. Reyes’s left hand was already named. The reach and the measuring stick were the edges the preview wrote for him.
The tape missed the man. The lean was Murzakanov’s compact left hand on the step-in. The head kick found him first, the same shape Costa used. Reyes’s knockout was priced at 22 in rounds 1–2. It was not the largest slice. The step-in never became the round. The Costa head kick was the night. The Rakić punches were not.
The preview
Azamat Murzakanov wins a round by closing the distance and landing the left hand before the taller man can measure him. Dominick Reyes wins one by using six extra inches of reach to keep that left hand from ever starting.
Three rounds. 205. UFC gloves. Booked for UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev on October 24. Both men were on the UFC 327 card in Miami in April. Murzakanov lost. Reyes won.
Why this fight matters
Murzakanov is 16-1, 37, 5'10", 71-inch reach, southpaw. UFC 6-1. He knocked out Alonzo Menifield, stopped Brendson Ribeiro, and finished Aleksandar Rakić with punches at 3:11 of round one, then lost to Paulo Costa by head kick at 1:23 of round three. That was the first loss of his career. Twelve of his sixteen wins are knockouts. A win here is the answer to the Costa night.
Reyes is 16-5, 36, 6'4", 77-inch reach, southpaw. UFC 10-5. He knocked out Nikita Krylov with a left hand at 2:24 of round one, got knocked out by Carlos Ulberg at 4:27 of round one, and beat Johnny Walker by split decision over three rounds on the same Miami card. Four of his five losses are knockouts. Ranked in the top ten. A win is a step back toward the men who used to be title fights.
What the tape numbers actually mean
Murzakanov lands 4.40 significant strikes per minute at 56 percent and eats 3.20. Defense 56 percent. Takedowns 0.68 per 15 at 20 percent. Takedown defense 88 percent. Submission average 0.2. Average fight time 8:17. He does not wrestle his way to a win. He lands the left and the right until the other man sits down. Rakić never saw round two. Costa did, and the head kick ended it.
Reyes lands 4.99 at 53 percent and eats 3.40. Defense 49 percent. Takedowns 0.25 per 15 at 28 percent. Takedown defense 82 percent. Submission average 0.2. Average fight time 7:51. The output is the jab and the left from a long frame. The defense is the hole. Ulberg found it in round one. Krylov did not.
Height is Reyes by six inches. Reach is Reyes by six. Age is a year. Stance is southpaw against southpaw. The lead foot is the open side for both.
Striking
Murzakanov’s A-game is the compact southpaw left, thrown on the step-in, and the right hook behind it. He does not peck. He closes. Against Rakić the entry was enough. Against Costa the entry was answered by a head kick once the first two rounds had been spent loading.
Reyes’s A-game is the long jab and the left hand down the pipe. Krylov walked onto it. Walker kept him at range for fifteen minutes, and the cards split. A 6'4" southpaw does not need to trade in the pocket. He needs the smaller man to miss the first step.
Grappling
Neither man shoots. Murzakanov’s takedown average is under one per 15 minutes. Reyes’s is 0.25. Both defend the shot well enough that a wrestling round is not the shape of this fight. A scramble is a reset, not a path. The submission averages are 0.2 both ways.
Clinch
Reyes’s office if he gets the collar. A frame from 77 inches is a different problem than a tie-up from 71. Murzakanov wants the elbow and the break back to the pocket. A clinch that stalls is a Reyes round. A clinch that breaks clean is another entry.
Pace
Three rounds, and neither man’s average fight lasts two. Murzakanov’s last two wins were round one. His only loss lived in round three. Reyes’s last knockout win was round one. His last knockout loss was round one.
Murzakanov’s keys
Step in behind the jab. Do not load the left from the outside.
Left hand to the body once the high guard comes up. Costa’s kick came from a high shell.
Finish in round one. Rakić was 3:11. The Costa night started when round one ended without a finish.
Do not chase a spinning entry. The reach is six inches. A miss is a counter.
Stay off the fence. A stalled pocket is Reyes’s jab resetting.
Reyes’s keys
Jab the lead hand. Make the step-in cost him balance.
Left hand when he dips to close. Krylov published that finish.
Use the fence as a measuring stick, not a place to trade.
Do not shell. Ulberg’s punches found a high guard in round one.
Steal round one on the jab so a late left hand is not a 10-8.
X-factors
Costa. Murzakanov has not answered that night yet. Reyes is the next man asked to be the answer.
Ulberg. Reyes’s chin against a power hand is not a theory. It is the last time one found him clean.
Walker. Reyes can win fifteen minutes at range without a finish. That is not the fight Murzakanov is looking for.
Prediction
Murzakanov’s compact left hand is the finish. Reyes’s path is the jab that keeps the step-in from ever landing clean.
Azamat Murzakanov 52
TKO 34, round 1
Decision 14
Submission 4
Dominick Reyes 48
TKO 22, rounds 1–2
Decision 20
Submission 6
The pick is the knockout. It is the largest share of the fight, and it is the way Murzakanov has won in the UFC when the first round does not escape him. Reyes’s knockout is the next share, the Krylov left hand. The decision is the Walker path: the jab banks the minutes, and the finish never comes. A Murzakanov decision is the night the power lands and the stoppage does not.
What a Murzakanov win would mean: the Costa head kick was a round-three problem, not a career one, and a long southpaw still has to survive the step-in. What a Reyes win would mean: six inches was enough, and the jab kept the left hand from getting set.