A five-round bantamweight title fight at UFC 333 between the champion who decisioned Merab Dvalishvili in December and the former champion who swept him on the cards in 2023.
Written by The Cage Scholar · Edited by @DudeGameison ·
Video prediction
Miss
Article · Hit
Petr Yan
Unanimous decision · 48-47, 48-47, 48-47
The night
Updated
Yan by unanimous decision, 48-47, 48-47, 48-47. Pick was Petr Yan by decision. Hit.
Dvalishvili pressed early. Yan survived the opening blitz. The later rounds turned on body kicks and left hands. Yan landed the cleaner work. Dvalishvili kept coming forward and kept shooting. The attempts did not stick. The cards were 48-47 all three ways. Yan kept the belt.
The tape got the winner and the method. The decision was the largest share. The second fight was the base: Yan stuffing the chain and banking the minutes on the boxing. The late rounds were the window the preview wrote for him.
The tape missed the volume of the early pressure. Dvalishvili’s blitz was real in the first two rounds. The accuracy on the shots collapsed. The ride never became the night. Yan’s body work and the exit were enough. The December tape held. The chain did not.
The preview
Petr Yan wins a round by stuffing the shot and landing the cleaner punch. Merab Dvalishvili wins one by chain-wrestling until the punch stops mattering.
Five rounds. 135. UFC gloves. The belt. Co-main event of UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev on October 24 at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi. One win each. The third meeting settles the reign.
Why this fight matters
Yan is 20-5, 33, 5'7", 67-inch reach, switch. UFC bantamweight champion. He lost the first meeting by unanimous decision, 50-45 on all three cards, on March 11, 2023. He won the rematch at UFC 323 on December 6, 2025, by unanimous decision, 49-46, 49-46, and 48-47, and took the belt. He has never been stopped. The other losses are decisions and the disqualification against Aljamain Sterling. A defense here is a reign. A loss is the belt going back.
Dvalishvili is 21-5, 35, 5'6", 68-inch reach, orthodox. Former champion. Fourteen straight wins, including the first Yan fight, Henry Cejudo, both Sean O’Malley meetings, Umar Nurmagomedov, and Cory Sandhagen, ended in Las Vegas in December. He has the most takedowns in UFC history. A win is the belt and the argument that the rematch was the off night.
What the tape numbers actually mean
Yan lands 5.16 significant strikes per minute at 54 percent and eats 4.24. Defense 59 percent. Takedowns 1.70 per 15 at 49 percent. Takedown defense 86 percent. Submission average 0.1. In the rematch he outlanded Dvalishvili 139-134 and outwrestled him 5-2. In the first fight he was outlanded 75-147 and gave up 11 takedowns. The boxing is the constant. The takedown defense is the variable that decided which man left with the belt.
Dvalishvili lands 4.42 at 41 percent and eats 2.80. Defense 54 percent. Takedowns 5.97 per 15 at 35 percent. Takedown defense 76 percent. Submission average 0.3. Sandhagen was 20 takedowns. The first Yan fight was 11. The rematch was 2. He does not need to outstrike a champion. He needs the shot to start landing again.
Height is Yan by an inch. Reach is Dvalishvili by an inch. Age is two years. Stance is switch against orthodox.
Striking
Yan’s A-game is the boxing. Jab, cross, the left hook on the exit, the calf kick when the lead leg is there to be kicked. He won the rematch on the cleaner shot and the defense. He lost the first fight because the shot never let the boxing become a round.
Dvalishvili strikes to set the level change. The 41 percent accuracy is not a firefight. It is a jab and a right hand thrown to make the hips drop. Against Sandhagen and Umar the striking was enough to steal minutes between the rides. Against Yan in December it was not.
Grappling
This is the fight, and the two nights already published both versions. The first meeting was a chain: shot, mat return, fence ride, another shot. Eleven takedowns. The rematch was a stuff. Yan’s 86 percent takedown defense held, and he scored five of his own. Dvalishvili’s guillotine, the one that finished O’Malley in round three of the rematch, is the finish if Yan shoots high or if a scramble gives him the neck. Yan’s submission average is 0.1. He does not hunt the choke. He hunts the position and the punch.
Clinch
Dvalishvili’s office if he gets the underhook. Body lock, trip, the ride along the fence that made the first fight a clinic. Yan wants the inside tie and the short elbow, then the break back to the center. A clinch that becomes a ride is a 10-8 for the challenger. A clinch that breaks clean is another minute of Yan’s boxing.
Pace
Twenty-five minutes, and both men have already done it twice against each other. Dvalishvili’s engine is the reputation. Yan’s is the rematch, where he was still landing in round five. The first fight was a pace Dvalishvili set. The second was a pace Yan survived and then won. The third is which of those paces shows up in Abu Dhabi.
Yan’s keys
Stuff the first shot. A second shot against the fence is the 2023 fight.
Jab and exit. Do not load the cross with the lead leg planted.
Score the takedown when he overcommits. The rematch was 5-2 the other way.
Calf kick the lead leg so the entry costs him balance.
Steal round one. A late ride cannot take a belt if the first two rounds are already banked.
Dvalishvili’s keys
Chain the shot. One attempt is a stuff. Three is a round.
Body lock off the fence. Do not shoot naked into the underhook.
Guillotine if the neck comes up. O’Malley ended that way.
Make him carry the pace into round four. The first fight was won late.
Do not box him for a minute. The rematch was lost on the cleaner punch.
X-factors
The first meeting. That Merab did not show up in December. He is the man Yan has to answer if the shot starts landing.
The rematch. Dvalishvili has not answered that night yet.
O’Malley. Yan is not a high shooter. The neck is still live if a scramble gives it up.
Abu Dhabi. The building is not the variable. The shot is.
Prediction
Yan’s boxing and the takedown defense that held in December are the fight. Dvalishvili’s path is the chain that won the first meeting, if it shows up again.
Petr Yan 56
Decision 40
TKO 12
Submission 4
Merab Dvalishvili 44
Decision 28
Submission 10, round 3
TKO 6
The pick is the decision. It is the largest share of the fight, and it is the way Yan won the belt back. Dvalishvili’s decision is the next share, and it lives where the first fight ended: the shots land, the cards agree, and the punch never becomes the round. The guillotine is the O’Malley finish. A Yan knockout is the night the boxing accumulates and the ride never starts.
What a Yan win would mean: the rematch was the real tape, and a former champion’s chain does not travel a third time. What a Dvalishvili win would mean: December was the off night, and the machine still takes the belt when the shot is there.